Revenge: Coptic Christian churches, homes are reportedly under attack by Morsi supporters

True to their vows, pro-Morsi Muslims are attacking Egypt’s Christians for participating in the anti-Morsi protests.  The St. George Coptic Christian Church in a village in al-Minya, Egypt, has just been set on fire by “pro-Morsi” forces.  Copts are reported to be in a state of “fear and panic.”

Days earlier, a letter was circulated in al-Minya, which has a very large Coptic population, calling on Copts not to join the protests, otherwise their “businesses, cars, homes, schools, and churches” might “catch fire.”

Thus this church attack is part of the price Egypt’s Christians had to pay to protest Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.  Time will only tell what other attacks Egypt’s harried Copts will pay down the line for participating in the ousting of an Islamist president.

Brian Lilley & Raymond Ibrahim – Egypt rids herself of Morsi

The military ouster of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi will likely have ramifications far beyond the ancient country’s borders, potentially affecting the balance of power in the Middle East, the influence the U.S. can wield in the region and the worldwide price of oil.

“Egypt sits at the center of the Mideast,” said Joel Rubin, a former State Department desk officer for the region. “Cairo is the leading city in the Arab world … and Egypt’s government has always had a dominant role over the politics of the region.”

Egypt is “in many ways the most important country in the Middle East,” said Isobel Coleman, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, with the “biggest population, the largest economy and a geographically critical location. … If it turns into a terrible, bloody civil war, it’s just bad for the whole region. It destabilizes the entire region.”

Here’s a look at how Rubin, Coleman and other experts see things playing out:

What happens next

Adly Mansour, 68, chairman of the Supreme Constitutional Court, takes over as acting president during an unspecified transitional period. The military suspended the Islamist-backed constitution and said it hoped for early elections; before the ouster, Egyptian military officials reassured Washington that they had no stomach for ruling the country themselves, U.S. officials told NBC News.

In the next 24 to 48 hours, the U.S.’s crucial task is to “maintain an open channel with the head of the Supreme Forces of Egypt,” said Marc Ginsberg, a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco and senior White House adviser for Middle East policy.

The Cycle: Next steps for government after Morsi ousting

“The State Department is probably going to dispatch [Defense] Secretary [Chuck] Hagel or Secretary [of State John] Kerry to the region or both to take a temperature of how willing the military is to turn over power,” he told MSNBC.

While the U.S. State Department is removing non-emergency embassy personnel and approved family members from the country, the U.S. ambassador, Anne Patterson, will stay, at least for now.

About 550 U.S. Marines are on standby at Naval Air Station Sigonella on the Italian island of Sicily and at Morón Air Base in southern Spain. Defense officials told NBC News on Wednesday evening that no decision has yet been made on whether to send them to Cairo.

In the short term

Expect a loud debate over whether what happened Wednesday in Cairo was or wasn’t a “coup.” It might seem like mere semantics, but it’s actually a critical determination.

U.S. law bans military or financial assistance “to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree.” At the same time, Washington’s biggest lever of influence over Cairo is the $1.5 billion in aid it sends Egypt each year.

“Obviously, the administration faces a difficult decision in terms of how to interpret what’s happened,” said P.J. Crowley, former chief spokesman for the State Department.

“But there’s some flexibility here. If these events move Egypt forward towards a deeper, a more inclusive democracy, I think the administration may interpret events one way,” Crowley said on MSNBC’s “Hardball.” “Obviously, if the military takes over and it has the trappings of an autocratic state, even for a temporary period of time, that will have different implications.”

President Barack Obama was unable to clear things up in his statement on the day’s development, saying only that he had “directed the relevant departments and agencies to review the implications under U.S. law for our assistance to the Government of Egypt.”

Oil prices — which rose for the third straight day Wednesday, with U.S. crude hitting a 14-month high of $101 a barrel — are likely to keep going up, at least for the next few days, before eventually settling down.

“There is always a significant risk premium built into the price of crude based on the tumultuous political nature of the Middle East,” Jim Iuorio, managing director of TJM Institutional Services, an independent futures brokerage, told CNBC.

“Egypt is not a huge oil producer, but it is important to the oil market because of its proximity to key shipping lanes,” Iuorio said.

The Suez Canal Authority said in a statement that it didn’t expect the 2.4 million barrels of oil that transit through the canal each day to be disrupted.

But John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Partners, a New York investment firm specializing in energy trading, disagreed, saying the upheaval was probably worth an extra $5 a barrel.

“I’m putting my money on the military to take control of the Suez Canal and make sure pipeline asset is secure,” Kilduff told CNBC. He said he could see prices falling under $100 a barrel only if “the military takes control.”

Asked about the potential threat to the canal, Defense Department press secretary George Little said, “Our assumption is the Suez Canal will remain open.”

In the long term

Egypt and Israel are the U.S.’s partners in a 34-year-old peace treaty, and the biggest threat from Wednesday’s events is the survival of that accord, officials and experts said.

“Like everybody, we are watching very carefully what’s happening in Egypt,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera.

“Like everybody, we are watching very carefully what’s happening in Egypt,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera. “Remember that for 30 years now, we have had an anchor of peace and stability in the Middle East, and that was the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. We hope that peace will be kept.”

It’s not just the tenuous truce that’s at risk. Without a stable Egyptian government helping to oversee interception efforts, more arms could be smuggled into the hads of the militant Islamist Hamas government in Gaza.

“Turmoil in Egypt certainly has repercussions for Israel,” said Coleman, of the Council on Foreign Relations. “One is that if the state is in disarray, it’s very hard to protect the border with Israel.

“The Morsi government has struggled with the [smuggling] tunnels, rebel activity, arms smuggling — all sorts of things. They have done their best in many ways to shut that down,” and now that government is gone, she said.

Ginsberg, the former ambassador, said the Obama administration had already been having “an extraordinarily difficult time navigating the changes that have taken place” since the Arab Spring of 2011, and Morsi’s departure “could well create circumstances where Hamas says all bets are off.”

“What are Hamas and other terrorist organizations going to do inside the Gaza Strip now?” he asked.

Courtney Kube, Jim Miklaszewski and Andrea Mitchell of NBC News contributed to this report. 

About these ads

6 comments

  1. Dan

    People can thank President Morsi, President Obama and the Muslim Brotherhood for the chaos that Egypt is in now. I hope and pray as we here in the United States celebrate our Independence today, that the Egyptian people will be able to gain their Independence from not only the dictatorship they were once under but from all tyrants. The Egyptian people believed the President of the United States supporting them would help in bringing them the gift of Real Freedom but in reality it turns out to be a trojan horse, they instead were given the Muslim Brotherhood who wants to install an Islamic (shariah) form of government, thus turning matters from bad to worse for the people of Egypt. I believe the Egyptian people never saw it coming, that the President of the United States of America, a country that so many look to as the beacon of Freedom, would instead help turn Egypt over to the Muslim Brotherhood. Now the Obama Administration is willing to put American lives in danger to protect the Muslim Brotherhood leadership he helped to install. Even when Mubarak was dictator of Egypt he jailed members of the Muslim Brotherhood so to protect the people of Egypt from them, before leaving Mubarak said if he left the Muslim Brotherhood would take over. I hope the good people of Egypt continue their fight to gain their own Independence and one day will enjoy the Liberties that we enjoy from having Real Freedom. Keep up the good fight, God Bless you all. God Bless America, Israel, the NRA and all Real Freedom Fighting Patriots.

  2. Pingback: U.S. PRESIDENTS: PLOTS, BROKEN PROMISES, COUPS, TORTURE, TWO GULAGS AND THE ‘AMERICAN DREAM’ | Welcome to the Blog of Jim Craven
  3. Pingback: U.S. PRESIDENTS: PLOTS, BROKEN PROMISES, COUPS, TORTURE, TWO GULAGS AND THE ‘AMERICAN DREAM’ |  SHOAH
  4. Pingback: Presidents, Plots, Broken Promises, Coups, Torture and Three Gulags by Felicity Arbuthnot | Dandelion Salad
  5. Pingback: U.S. PRESIDENTS: PLOTS, BROKEN PROMISES, COUPS, TORTURE, TWO GULAGS AND THE ‘AMERICAN DREAM’ |

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s